Does Rabbitte go around the Sun?

An article in today’s Irish Times pretty much made the same argument as this. But I started this yesterday so I say poo to you Irish Times not everyone reads you so here is my take.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sun goes around the earth. I mean if you walk out the door at 9 O’ Clock and see the sun to your left and then you walk out the door at 4 and it is on your right. You haven’t moved house so you presume that the sun most have moved. However facts don’t lie and the earth goes around the sun.

Much of the recent talk about worker displacement and wage deflation starts with the sentence “anecdotal evidence suggests”. Yet if we look at the facts wage deflation is a not supported. The CSO's current (Q3 2005) Quarterly National Household Survey reports that approximately 25% of the 40,000 immigrants who joined the labour force found work in the construction industry. Yet wages in construction have experienced inflation of 6%. So to say that foreign workers are bringing down wages is on the whole wrong. (Article here from Freedom Institute)

But what about the anecdotal evidence. It has to be based in fact doesn’t it? Well yes of course there are people losing jobs because of migrants and unscrupulous employers are employing them at lower wages. But that is due to lack of enforcement of labour laws more then anything. Also the unemployment in Ireland is dropping in Ireland so it seems to suggest that these people losing jobs are gaining other jobs. But if Pat Rabbitte’s restrictions come into place they will only put the workers in a less secure situation. Leading to more exploitation.

Every country has its glory days France had the Belle Epoch Italy had the Roman Empire, Britain had its Victorian era but what was Irelands. Many would say when we were the isle of saints and scholars but is a few monks copying the bible really anything to Ireland taking its place as one of the leading countries in the world. We have never been as free and peaceful. Now we are a world leader in economic thought. Eastern European countries and many around the world do not look at France America or Sweden to inspire their political direction they look to us. They see low unemployment, high minimum wage, high social welfare payments, high productivity and amongst the highest rate of life satisfaction and want to emulate it in their countries. However the price paid for this our economy is a hungry beast it needs to be feed the things it needs. Houses, spending and workers. Now the houses are going to stay going for a while the demand is high and demographics suggest there is another few years in it yet. Watch Eddie Hobbs any night and you will see the Irish have no trouble spending. So the one factor challenging Irelands golden age is workers. We just don’t have enough.

I bet jobs created in this country over the next 2 years will be greater then the available unemployed. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this would mean every unemployed person would get a job. But if you look at the facts a pharmaceutical company is going to employ someone qualified in the same way that a plastering company is going to employ a plaster. Put simply the unemployed pool simply do not have the skills we need. This means we have to retrain and import the talent. So what happens if we decide what we have is enough and should stop importing labour like about 70% of the people polled want. Firstly companies will stop investing in Ireland. Two the companies here already here will not expand but setup operations in other countries and eventually leave increasing unemployment. House price will increase as there will be less people to build houses increasing cost. Slowing the sector and eventually crippling the economy. This is one of many scenarios that will happen. I can’t think of any good ones for sending them home or blocking entry.

One of the arguments is what happens when are country goes bust. Well that is a presumption that many people have. They have lived through the 80s and expect it to go like that again. I am no economist but I don’t think this will happen. True our economy will decline but unemployment will be no where near the 20% of the 80s. But the question is then how will we handle these people in social welfare. Firstly they can’t claim social welfare unless they have been working for 2 years. This means they have been paying taxes for 2 years. Which frankly is a lot more then some on unemployment at the moment. So are they not entitled to something at that stage? Also we hear the figures for immerigrants every year coming to this country. But how about the figures for leaving. Like many Irish going to oz now immerigrants come to Ireland for a year or two to make a bit of money, have a good time and learn English. The figures support this, the Department of Social and Family Affairs say that the majority of the workers stay only 10 months. They want to go back home and do go back. Ireland’s economy is booming Sweden’s is not and more people from Eastern Europe take the longer trip to Ireland. They come to work and make some money. So on a scale from 1 to yogurt the likelihood of many staying on in a 1980sesque Ireland getting social welfare is just not that creamy.

But then what about Irishness. Some say that they are going to dilute Ireland and eventually turn the Irish into a minority race in Ireland. This really is crap. Look at America some of the most proud Americans are Irish-Americans. They say they are Irish but are utterly dedicated to America. In 30 years time the 19 year old Polish-Irish Tipperary full forward is going to drill the ball past the legendary Nigerian born Kilkenny goal keeper to bring Liam McCarthy cup back to its rightful place. If these immigrants kids are given equal education opportunities and this anti-Immigrant sentiment that Pat Rabbitte is tapping is done away with these people are going to fit into to Irish life with out much hassle.

Political correctness people throw out the word racist for anyone that disagrees with them no matter what the facts are. The reason I called Pat Rabbitte’s comments racial scaremongering was because in my opinion the facts do not back up any call for restricting the movement of labour. So why are politicians coming out in favour of restrictions? Well if 78% of people are in favour of it do you not think they are seeing a big pile of votes in the next election. The Labour party was for the Nice referendum the very referendum that brought in unrestrictive access from Eastern Europe. Now they are against it. Who ever said politics was about principles.

Immigration myth

The Freedom Institute's blog has some interesting figures from the The CSO's current (Q3 2005) Quarterly National Household Survey about how immigrant workers are effecting wages in light of recent Pat Rabbitte comments. You can read the Article here. The best fact i think is this.

While construction absorbed the highest percentage of immigrant workers, wage inflation in this area stood at 6.0% in the 12 months to September 2005.

With Inflation between 2-3% Construction wages grew. Compared to

Earnings in the Financial Services sector were up just 1.7% in the 12 months to September, below the rate of consumer price inflation.

Edit: A survey in the Irish Times tomorrow says that about 78% of the population polled want eastern Europeans subject to Work Permits. Also according to politics.ie the PD supporters are the ones most against work permits. But comparing the figures from the Freedom Institute and the poll makes scary reading. Pat Rabbitte type scare tactics could lay the basis for an Irish BNP. Scary times indeed. Edit again: Minister for Social and Family Affairs Seamus Brennan weighs in:

"These people deserve to be treated properly in Ireland, they deserve to be welcome here," he said. "They're young people who come here for fairly short periods to do work and that's what Irish people have done all over the world for generations. "It wouldn't be right for us to start with any kind of serious restrictions."

SIPTU leader:

“It is now absolutely clear that, if we are to go into new national pay talks, and that has still to be decided, these issues must be addressed,” Mr O’Connor said. “Even if we wanted to, neither the trade union movement, nor the Government, nor probably employers, could emerge with an acceptable proposal from those talks that does not comprehensively address these issues.”

Edit 3. Michael McDowell

No one is really suggesting that the people who are here now working in our economy should be sent home." He conceded that it would be difficult to implement work permits asking: "Who would be eligible for them and if there was excessive demand for them who would actually decide that this person gets one of those permits and that person doesn't? "The interests of Ireland depend on there being migration into the country at this stage. It can't be uncontrolled migration and I take that poll as saying to the Government, remember you have a power to control it and if needs be you should control it,"

Ned O'Keefe

"The situation has to be looked at in some orderly way. But at the end of day we have to have some protection in place for Irish people who are seeking employment in their own land," Mr O'Keeffe said. "It's a matter for the legislature to put systems in place where we can maybe work on a quota system," he added.

Recent Poll

The recent poll out is interesting in a way. The results for the Pd and the greens can be ignored. They only run in a few places so a national poll shows nothing. From Indo.

Fianna Fail is now on 37pc (+3), Fine Gael 24 (-1), Labour 16 (+2), SF 9 (-1), Greens 4 (-1), PDs 3 (-1), and others 8pc, unchanged. That suggests the Government parties have jumped 2pc since the previous corresponding poll in September.

From Sluggerotoole comment by Henry94

Fianna Fail'’s core vote sits now at 37%, which is below the 41.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002. Fine Gael'’s core vote sits now at 18%, which is below the 22.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002. The PDs's core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.75% it achieved in the general election of 2002. The Greens'’s core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.85% it achieved in the general election of 2002. Besides Sinn Fein the only party to make a gain was Labour at 12% up from the 10.77% it achieved in the general election of 2002. It is suggested by commentators that Labour's gain was caused by itÂ’s playing of the anti-immigrant card.

I have to agree, Pat Rabbitee playing the race card is certainly going to increase their vote. His own rating has gone up 4%. Sinn Fein's support is also falling. What I said about a Sunday Business Post Poll back in September.

Limerick Gears up for Munster Match

Limerick is the home of Rugby. Where in Leinster it is only the D4 heads who play. In Limerick everyone plays. So when a big match is in The Fortress of Thomand Park. The city jumps behind the team. As seen with the city draped in Munster Flags. Even Brown Thomas is Red I'll have more pictures over the weekend. From the Match. Because even though the tickets are like goldust The Dossing Times Thomand Park correspondent (A new title I just gave myself) has one. Come on Munster.

Top 6 Friday Barn Yard Animals

6. Sheep. Where would the Clancys be without them 5. Hens. The most feared of all party groups. 4. Dog. Without them Snoop Dogg would be Charlie Brown. 3. Cat. Inspired hey didle Didile the cat and the fiddle. 2. Cows. The first Animals to attempt a moon landing but they went over. 1. Pigs. Do I need to telegraph this un P.C joke.

Ireland and anti-Zionism

This story has totally gone under my radar. Seemingly there is a bit of a spat between Ireland and Israel. Seemingly former Labour Justice minister Justin Keating in an article in Dubliner magazine said.

"The Land of Israel was the birthplace of the Jewish people." This was a self serving and untruthful Zionist myth.

Bertie refused to condemn the comments and Ariel Sharon aide Raanan Gissin said

"I am very sorry that Ireland takes this position because in doing that they support [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad," he said.

The full story from the Jewish Telegraph can be read here. Does this mean anything. I'm don't think so.

Is Iran the death nail in the U.N.

In the film Wag the Dog America invented a war with Albania so as to divert media attention from a scandal. The Iranian President must have watched that film as well. The countries economy is in a poor state and it is the main issue for many Iranians. But unemployment is 25% and even with massive oil revenues the country is in dire straits. So what does it do. It make people forget about the economy by uniting them behind a cause. That cause international attack.

Oil burning is still amongst the cheapest ways of making electricity far cheaper then nuclear. Now add into that equation no need to import oil and you begin to wonder why Iran would need nuclear energy. So it seems quiet obvious to me that basically Iran is looking to build a bomb. The major powers realise this and are looking to act. But what can be done.

David “I think nicknames like Kells Angels are cool” McWilliams in an excellent piece in the Sunday Business Post Outlined the three ways that this situation could pan out.

In order of preference, there are only three ways out of this conundrum. First, and most preferable, is that the UN imposes sanctions on Iran and that this works. The second is that the US air force, launched from Iraq, attacks the Iranian instalments, neutralising the Iranian nuclear programme. The third is that the Israeli air force destroys the Iranian plant as it did Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981.

Now the American and Israeli strategies will work in the objective of stopping nuclear production for now. But it is doubtful that they will bring real change to the country and could indeed make the region even more unstable. To truly stabilise the region multiple nation support is needed.

The Irish government White Paper on Defence of February 2000 says of the UN that it ‘has the primary role to play in the maintenance of international peace and security’. Iran proves the biggest test to this. While the UN is noble and useful in it dedication to peacekeeping if it cannot effect a solution in Iran it shows that the only peace it can maintain is in small backwaters that the rest of the world wants to forget and not in larger countries that pose the true tests to international peace and security.

The UN’s inability to act in the most dangerous cases such as Iran is due to the diversity of the security council. Each member state has its own concerns and is going to act according to them. This is shown in Iran where China is reluctant to act as it has oil interests there. Also Russia has a big contract with Iran for nuclear reactors. This explains why the UN cannot be depended on to act. The interests of Europe are not the same as China the interests of America are not the same as Russia. France interests in Iraq surly clouded its judgement on the war in Iraq. This is due to the five permanent members veto. Israel's decade-long defiance of resolutions calling for the dismantling of settlements in the West Bank, the genocide in Rwanda, the recent war in the Congo amongst other things show that even when the U.N mainly agrees it cannot produce results.

But surely if the UN cannot act on issues such as Iran it still has a role to play in other aspects such as human rights. Yet Colonel Ghaddhafi can appoint the U.N. Commissioner on Human Rights and also the U.N has failed to put things like Gauntanamo Bay under serious scrutiny. On issues such as aid. The Red Cross/Crescent has much the same coverage and indeed as it doesn’t have the same organisation structures it can act a lot faster.

The Maastricht treaty says:

Member States shall coordinate their action in international organizations and at international conferences. They shall uphold the common positions in such fora. In international organizations and at international conferences where not all the Member States participate, those which do shall take part shall uphold the common position.

The EU sees itself as a more important entity then the UN and other organisations. Ireland is taking a case against Sellafield. It took this to the UN court but this has been blocked by the European court which says it has jurisdiction. If this case is won by Europe it will prove that the EU sees itself as the true negotiator between countries in Europe and that the U.N is not needed. Is this the first step of Europe moving away from the U.N.

Thus what is needed to truly affect decisions is coalitions of the agreeing. But does that not just regionalise the world again? The aim of the U.N was to create a world devoid of blocs. But the world is in Blocs China is rarely going to agree with America and the Gas crisis in the Ukraine shows that Russian-European relations aren’t great. Also the war in Iraq showed that America and Europe are not in much agreement either. So maybe it is inevitable that the world is going to divide into factions. The E.U. U.S.A Russia China may agree on something’s but not on everything. Something’s need to be done that are disagreed with between blocs. For instance Europe and America were in agreement about Kosovo but China and Russia didn't hence it was NATO that went into Kosovo.

One thing the Iran crisis has shown is the first signs that Britain seems to be moving away from America. The groups coming to the fore in condemnation of Iran are America Russia and the EU-3. This new entity the EU-3 is interesting. The British Government received a lot of flack from its own people about the handling of the War in Iraq. So when the press conferences about Iran are on. Jack Straw is not standing beside Condoleeza Rice but beside his EU, French and German counter parts. When Ms Rice (soon to be Vice President Rice watch this space) was conferencing about Iran she was talking to E.U Foreign Minister Javier Salano. Britain seems to be along with France and Germany showing a United EU front. This I think is signalling a move for the British government away from being a bit player in the American sphere towards a major player in the European Sphere. This has major implications for NATO but that is a topic for another day.

So what is the future for the U.N. If divisions over Iran stifles action it will prove that the UN cannot fulfil it objectives that of promoting peace in the world. The EU proves that pervious warring nations and blocs can come together and work together. But maybe this is due to Europeans having a lot in common and the Union appealing to each members own greed. Maybe the solution to world division is in the EU model.

By ending global poverty and promoting globalisation greed will dictate that the countries will act peacefully for their mutual benefit. But then the cultural differences will pop up. But then maybe one of the U.N’s publicity stunts, goodwill ambassadors, is the solution to world peace. Western Culture and music in particular had a massive effect on the fall of the Iron curtain (and their cultural will effect western culture in years to come) this could be applied to the rest of the world including Iran. I had 2 Muslim friends from Tunisia one kept going on about the Cranberries and the other thought Slipknot were "very beautiful". So maybe Time magazine in a way was right when it said Bono could Save the World.

Why I am a Liberal Hating Liberal

Auds over on RealityCheck(dot)ie makes a great point. In her discussion about Equality Legislation she says.

Legislating against speech is a bad idea - for the most part it's subjective and the test of reasonableness is hard found. Crimes are crimes regardless of who they're committed against or why - the thug who beats up a homosexual person commits the same crime as the thug who beats up a heterosexual. Why do we need laws to protect minorities when the main priniciple that they're protected under, namely the right to be treated equally, stands on it own?

In response to people who say that people against gay marriage should not be allowed to air their views, at all. She says.

I think it's censorship rooted in a smug superiority that's afraid, or unwilling to engage opponents in a meaningful discourse. If you are so adamant that those who do not agree with you are so fundamentally wrong, why shy away from the public forums where you can competently and convincingly dismantle their arguments? Why resort to name calling and excessive labelling?

I could not agree more. This is why I am a liberal hating liberal. While I disagree with people against Gay Marriage I am totally supportive of their right to air there views in a discussion. And before anyone says what about Nazi Sympathiers. A few years ago a radio presenter had the leader of the BNP on. Many people protested the fact that he was on and wanted to pull the man of the show. But the presenter let him on, let him say his views and then ripped his views apart in debate. If he had censored him the BNP would have gain sympathy and a propaganda victory(like Gerry Adams on the Late Late years ago when Gay Byrne refused to shake his hand). However because his views were turn apart many of their supporters may have thought twice about continuing to support them. Ignoring Bigots does not make them go away. Confronting them does.

Division in the Rainbow.

I'm not very good at Irish so this was pointed out to me by a friend who is. Seemingly Trevor Sargent was interviewed in this weeks Foinse. He outlined in Irish that he is very pro-Irish and that he thought that Enda Kenny's proposal to make Irish non-compulsory at Leving Cert level would make it an academic language like Latin or Ancient Greek. He reckons Enda Kenny just wants to start a debate about compulsory Irish for Leaving Cert. Now I am not sure if Kenny just wanted to start a debate. I mean even if he was just throwing an idea out there it wouldn't be one that would damage him. There are a lot of people including my self who think that is a bad idea. Maybe Enda was gambelling on more young people in favour of it then people against it. However if it is a serious policy. Will Trevor (who teaches Irish on Fridays) see this as a barrier to joining government? Will he demand that the policy is droped? Or is Trevor just gearing to get votes in the various Gaeltacht namily Niall O Brolcháin in Galway West. Who lost out last time by around 800 votes.

Iran what is to be done.

Free Thoughts on Iran blog has an interesting article about the current crisis. How an Israeli Attack would further Iran's Nuclear Intentions Also David McWilliams has an interest article in the Sunday Business Post and what effect sanstions would have. The nuclear nightmare that looms over the Middle East This conflict is difficult to judge and I don't know what the best way is to go about tackling this.

Easy peasy Chocolate orange and rum cheesecake.

I have been getting some hits about cheesecakes recently so I thought I should share my easy method of making tasty cheesecake. This recipe is idiot proof. First take some chocolate chip cookies. About 2 packets of chocolate chip cookies. (about 400g) and crush them. To make the base

Then melt about 50g of butter in a saucepan at a low heat. Next put the crushed cookies in to the saucepan. Keep stirring until the chocolate in them is kind of melting and the mixture is getting darker and a wee bit moist. Then put contents of the sauce pan into a cake tin. (or any thing suitable.) And flatten it out until fairly even.

To make the filling

Next put a packet of orange jelly ( if you are American this is not what you put on toast. I think it is jello to you. But don't quote me on that) into a mug of boiling water and allow to melt. Once it is melted place inside a blender. Add half a carton of cream (not sure of the volume but half the standard Irish carton) Add a tub of Philadelphia Cream cheese. Add about a breakfast serving of fresh squeezed orange juice not concentrate . Then add a shot or two of rum. Blend this . Then melt some chocolate about 125g. add this into the blender and blend. Taste the mixture and add more orange, chocolate or rum if you think it needs it.

The finish

Pour the blended mixture on to the base in the cake tin. If you want to be fancy. Melt some more chocolate. Using a spoon carefully let the liquid chocolate trickle on to the surface of the Cake. And make swrilly shapes. Then carefully place into the fridge. Should be ready in a few hours.

This recipe can be adapted to many flavors. Enjoy.

CIA flights in Baldonell

Interesting post by Freestater about CIA flights into Baldonell. The PO box given is indeed the address of the US embassey in Ghana.

Why the media should not praise Governments

John Bowman made an excellent point on questions and answers the last night. Brian Cowen was going on about how many roads are on time and under budget and yet the media doesn't cover that. What Bowman said but it is not news that is what they are suppose to do. If a train crashes it is news but if a train comes in on time it is not news as it is what is supposed to happen. On his blog Mark humphrys says one of the problems with western Media is.

Refusal to ever praise the west: For the media, a story does not exist unless it can cast some skeptical look over western policy. The idea of them saying: "Government and military doing well, given that they are humans. Not much to criticise." seems absurd. A story must criticise the authorities. It must be negative, and slyly skeptical. It must compare the government and military to an imaginary utopia where everything runs perfectly (actually this is very much the left-wing mindset).

This is all good and healthy, and essential to democracy. But the point is, it can distort the news. Governments do achieve good things. Over the past 200 years, we have got richer. We have got freer. Tyrants have been destroyed and threats have been ended forever. But the media can never celebrate these things. It must find things to be negative about. And it will highlight these, even if they are trivial, while ignoring the real story of success.

As I say, this is good and healthy. Non-stop criticism is what makes democracy strong, just as it does science. My point is just that it distorts the news. When government has a massive success, the media simply do not cover it.

But that is the point of good governments if they get rid of tyrants they are doing their job. When we get richer they are doing their job, when we get freer they are doing their job. We should expect that from them. That is their purpose. If you drive a car and drive at the correct speed do you get praised no that is what your have to do. When you speed then you are in trouble . When government don't do their job that is when we need the media.

Sinn Fein's Scandinavian love affair.

Sinn Fein released their tax plan there last week. As expected from Sinn Fein it is a million miles away from what they said the year before. One policy was that Northern Ireland should have the Euro. About a month ago Gerry Adams was calling from Ireland to leave the Euro. Why Sinn Fein can get away with this policy jumping is beyond me. They are members of the European United Left -Nordic Green Left Anyway like many people they like going on about the Scandinavian model. Here is a very good article about the Scandinavian model and why it is a myth. Personally I don't think the Scandinavian model could ever work in Ireland. I think the reason why we can never have it. Is due to Irish culture and way of life. Here is a story a good friend of mine told me that explains the difference between the Irish and the Scandinavians and which I think explains why the Scandinavian model can never work here.( I’m not 100% sure the quotes are accurate but its close enough to explain my point) Two friends of mine were asking a girl from Sweden about how long it takes to get to the airport. The girl from Sweden said "65 minutes" So my friend said "oh so about an hour". And the Swedish girl. "No it takes 65 minutes." My friend said “In Ireland we would say it is about an hour”. The Swedish girl said “Why its 65 minutes”. That is why it can never work in Ireland. The parts of our culture that indear us to other countries and to ourselves is the very reason that our economic model is the one that works for us.

Home Grown Islamic Extremism in the West

Recent opinions Polls in Britain have found that 60% percent of Muslims want Shariah Law. 40% support al-Qaeda and 27% approve of the attacks on the Twin Towers. This is a shocking statistic. And Kevin Myers is quiet right to say that In Ireland the question do we want to take in 100,000 Muslims 27% of whom may support the twin Towers Attacks or 100,000 Poles.

On the other hand look at India a country that had a bitter split between Muslims and Hindus in the 40s. Yet this country has a Muslim head of state, a Sikh head of government and a Christian leader of the largest party. Muslims and Non-Muslims work to together on economic issues perfectly without any friction. For most people religion probably is less of an issue in choosing persons representatives then in America

In Lebanon the Cedar revolution has removed Syrian influence from the country. It was a populist uprising. Lebanese Muslims did not side with the Muslim Syria they sided with their fellow Lebanese. It didn’t matter that they were Christians they were simply fellow countrymen and women.

In Iraq while Islamic extremism is quiet high much of the war isn’t fought on religions grounds but is comparable to the early 20^th century Irish “get the Brits out and we will be better off” ideal. What ever American right wingers like to think Anti-Americanism in the Muslim world isn’t always based on Islam it is often based simply on a desire for independence. But I digress.

Even in Afghanistan the home of Al-Qaeda “Eighty-one percent of Afghans said they think that al-Qaeda is having a negative influence in the world”. Compare that to Britain. So why does Britain seem to have such a higher proportion per Muslim head of radical Muslims then the Muslim world.

The normal argument lefties like to throw out is that it is our fault for not integrating them into our society. Yet there is no Muslim party in the British parliament. Muslims live in tight-nit community Yet how come if 60% of Muslims support Shariah Law how come there isn’t a Shariah Law party in the Parliament they are not voting for there political beliefs. This shows to me even if this 60% are been pushed out of society they are not trying to integrate with the society either. While the Muslims that do participate in society do so like any other British person would like the Birmingham Labour MP Khalid Mahmood. Nor is it a case of social deprivation. There are many people poor of all races yet they don’t all rise up in rebellion. One of the 7/7 bombers in London was a teacher another was a son of a chip shop owner. They were not economical badly off.

The PIRA received most of their financial support from Irish-Americans. Irish-Americans still clung to the physical force tradition of Ireland at a time when the rest of Ireland had moved on. Many Irish-Americans still think of Ireland as listening to Danny Boy and riding around on donkeys when really the Irish are listening to 50-cent and riding around in BMWs. To many Irish Americans supporting the PIRA was sort of a way of being true to Ireland.

So why do we have Muslims in Britain wanting Shariah law and supporting Al-Qaeda and Muslims in the Islamic world increasingly wanting rid of Shariah and anti Al-Qaeda? I really don’t know why. Is it similar to the Irish-Americans? Is Islamic extremism in western countries not so much about jihad against Islam’s enemies but merely a yearning for identity? And if this is so how can we prevent another 7/7 attack in Britain or Ireland.?

Top 6 Friday My favourite songs of all time. (this week)

Here is a list of my favourite songs of all time this week next week they will probably change. 6. Rocky Racoon The Beatles . A friend of mine in college use to do a great version of this song. So always brings back good memories. Not a bad moral lesson either. 5. Speed of the sound of Loneliness Alabama 3 From exile on Coldharbour lane. From the band that gave you the sopranos theme. A mixture of jazz country acid house. It is a song that just is plane cool 4. Christy Moore Nancy Spain Simply a beautiful song. 3. Angel Massive Attack from Mezzanine. Possible one of the most visual of songs. You hear the song and you immediately are transported to another place and time. You travel to the trenches of World War 1 and can see your self going over the top. Rushing to a futile death. A terrible beauty of a song. 2.The Pogues and Kirsty MacColl Fairytale of New York. This is probably the only Christmas song that can be listened to throughout the year. The tale of down on their luck Irish immigrants in New York. It is hopeless and hopefully hate and love all at the same time. The line I could have been some one Well so can anyone you took my dreams from me when I first found you. I kept them with me babe I put them with my own can’t make it along I built my dreams all around you is poetic and the video of Kirsty MacColl and Shane McGowen slow dancing awkwardly is a vision of true love that Westlife or any modern band could ever achieve. 1. Keep on rocking in the free world. Possible the most powerful verses in the history of music. “I see a woman in the night With a baby in her hand Under an old street light Near a garbage can Now she puts the kid away, and she's gone to get a hit She hates her life, and what she's done to it There's one more kid that will never go to school Never get to fall in love, never get to be cool..

2007 Election North Tipp

So everyone is now looking at the elections thinking who they will see getting into government. But the only way to really predict this is to look at every seat. So here is my prediction for my constituency North Tipperary. The Nenagh Guardian has an article about it this week. Enda Kenny sees North Tipp as a winable Fine Gael seat due to the fact Fine Gael use to always get a big vote in here. They have selected Senator Noel Coonan. However Enda is deluding himself. They haven't a hope in hell of getting a seat in the constituency. The traditional Fine Gael vote is going to be behind Michael Lowery. If the controversy's that have dogged him had not arisen he would be the leader of Fine Gael. A great organizer and with more personality then Enda. Fine Gael would be a lot stronger now then they would have been. He will top the poll. There is a traditional strong Fianna Fail vote in North Tipp. This will result in Michael Smith holding his seat easily. The third seat is where the dog fight will be between Maire Hocter of Fianna Fail and Kathleen O'Meara of Labour. It is hard to tell who will take this seat but I think a general mood of boredom with the present government will give the seat to Kathleen O'Meara on a re-count. If other Bloggers wanted to predict their constituencies would be good.

What the love Ulster parade means for Ireland.

If you look at the main Blog listing site technorati. You will find that The Dossing Times is listed top of the Most Authority list for Northern Ireland. While I'm flattered and do talk about the North sometimes I am no Slugger. But with this in mind.

So Willie Frazier is coming down to march in Dublin for victims of Violence. This is a noble cause and does deserve our full support. However Willy Frazier’s organisation is not for victims of Violence.

The organisation is a sectarian organisation. The march is going to be headed by a Union Jack with Orange Bands. And of the 1000 marchers about 5 will be Catholic this is not about victims it is about IRA victims. If it was a victim’s organisation it would not have Orange Bands and it would have both Union Jacks and Tri-Colours. What we need is true a victims group one who represents all victims North, South and in Britain. Not a sectarian organisation masquerading as one. This is basically a Love Ulster parade. An organisation with suspected links to Loyalist paramilitaries.

First of all. The Orange Order under the constitution are Irish Citizens. So they are as entitled to march down O’Connell Street as anyone. I totally agree that they should be allowed to and welcome them. However why do they want to march in Dublin?

On the Big bite on RTE Willie Frazier said that the march was the first test for people down south. This struck me as very strange. Why were we being tested, and if this is the first what is the next test?

The North is struggling. Where once Unionist prided themselves that they were the hard workers and the true economic power house of the Island (which was utterly true). The north is now an economic basket case and the south is not just the economic power house on the Island it is one of the strongest in the World. Where down South ministers open massive IT and pharmaceutical plants, Northern ministers open Tesco’s.

The next leader of the U.K will be Gordon Browne while many unionist are happy about this thinking he will be more pro-Union then Tony. However he is if anything a fiscally conservative guy. Will he see as justifiable the £5 billion the British treasury gives to Northern Ireland ever year? Which is more then the EU gave to Ireland. Where the EU’s money in Ireland help build an economy which will soon be a net contributor to the EU economy. Northern Ireland is unlikely to contribute to the British exchequer any time soon.

Unionists see that Britain doesn’t want them any more. Unionism is realising this especial in the young. The Portadown News parodied the Ulster Unionist poster Decent people vote Ulster Unionist saying decent people leave Ulster. This is increasingly true. Young people now by and large don’t care for sectarian policy. They worry about education, economy, environment, child care everything that Southern and British people worry about. But they don’t have any option in the political spectrum. They can’t vote left they can’t vote right yet. The question is how long before this happens how long till the disenfranchised youth start creating and voting Northern Labour, Northern Conservatives, Northern Green parties (not connected to either British or Irish parties). Parties with no sectarian policy. They see the South has moved away from the United Ireland politics and has boomed. They too want to be well off. The first aim of the Love Ulster campaign is "LoveUlster is a campaign for Unionist unity ". This suggests to me the campaign is all about stopping people moving away from sectarian voting. The love Ulster Web site has also been linked to the organisation of the rioting last summer.

So what is the point of this Love Ulster parade. Is it an attempt to get a response out of us? Do they want a violent response to go back to the North and say they are all bigots still down there. You must vote to preserve the union less you be destroyed. This could cut any possibility of normal politics in the North. With the Southern booming economy they have lost their greatest argument that the South can’t run a country. And the booming economy has strengthened the Union many down South don't want to pay the cost of the North. So they need another argument to bolster the unionist cause. An attack or a massive protest against this march would be just what the doctor ordered. They could go back and say see they haven’t changed they are still intolerant to Unionists. Maybe that is the first test. A test to see how much pressure is needed to rise Irish sectarian hatred.

On the other hand Sinn Fein is on the rise in the South. It is feasible to suggest they might be in power in the South. This may really increase anti-Unionist sentiment in this country. Many people down here think that Bloody Sunday was diabolical yet the Enniskillen bombing was less so. They readily accept British Army collusion in the Dublin and Monahan bombings but dismiss as ludicrous Garda collusion in IRA violence. Even amongst does who despise the IRA some see the crimes against Protestants as less legitimate some how. In this country Unionist get the least fair hearing in the media and in pubs. Anything Ian Paisley says is immediately deemed wrong. This attitude needs to change we have to be as sympathetic to the plight of ordinary unionist as we are to ordinary nationalists. Some people keep going on about how Orange culture is represented in the Irish Flag and Protestants should realise it is inclusive of them. And they should but those people should also realise it is a two way thing we have to include them to truly embrace the Irish flag's meaning.

So what is the point of this organisation and parade. Is it an attempt to solidify Unionist support by getting a bad response in Dublin or is it to show us that Unionist were victims to or some show of strength of support against a United Ireland. We in Ireland are coming more and more accepting of multiculturalism the majority of us are proud how we are easily (and most are) accepting them into our society. But maybe what Willie Frazier meant by test was that. The biggest and hardest test for Irish society is not seeing can we accept Poles or Nigerians but can we accept Unionists.

Update: The aftermath of the riots that stopped the parade. riots and consequences

Ireland in NATO.

I started the "Should Ireland join NATO poll" just as a filler really. Thinking that the answer to the issue would be fairly uniformly no. However the vote is so far closer then I thought it would be. So if you haven't voted already do please. The poll is on the right sidebar. Also if anyone has an argument for or against feel free to place it in the comments. I'll try writing a more substantial post on the arguments as I see them soon.

Canadian Elections an uninformed view.

The Conservatives (Tories) are the main opposition party in Canada. But they seem to be a fan of Brian Cowen one of their recent policies is to give a $1,200 (€840) annual allowance for parents of children under the age of 6. Maybe Cowen should sue for copyright infringement. I remember reading some foreign blogs during the IRA decommissioning. To put it bluntly they hadn’t a clue of Northern Irish politics. One average a person from the North is probably going to have 10 times (actual figure may be 100% made up) the grasp of the Northern situation then a southerner and a southerner probably will have a 100 times better grasp then an American. With that in mind here is my take on the Canadian election. Canada is on of the richest countries in the world. So what happens in the election will effect us more then what happens in the Palestinian election. Yet the coverage is a lot less. I suppose the reason for this is that suicide bombers and Israeli bans on polling make better press then spats about softwood lumber. The election was called when Paul Martins liberal party lost a no confidence won in November. This was a long time coming as he was leader of a minority government and it was dogged with controversy. In the end the straw that broke the camels back was the Gomery report. Basically the scandal was that in the late 1990s about €70 million of tax payers money was paid by the liberal government to advertising agencies in return for not a lot of work. It was alleged that some Liberal Officials demanded kickbacks for the contracts. So the election was set for January 23. So who are the contenders The Marijuana party of Canada has zero chance of being in the next government . But I thought I would mention them. I have not read their manifesto but does one really need to guess their policy.(read it here) They are fielding 23 candidates which puts Ming the Merciless to shame. The main party is the Liberals who are lead by Paul Martin. Paul Martin was the previous Finance minister who seemingly did not want to be finance minister. However he is credited to have done a spectacular job. Guiding the country out of dire trouble, clearing massive debts and running surpluses. However as leader he is not as popular. The current polls place them at 113 seats The Conservatives (Tories) would be considered a right wing government. But recently they said that they would increase the bottom tax base up to 16%. It had recently been drop from 16% to 15% by the supposedly left wing Liberal Party. This is causing a stir in Canada. They claim that overall their tax cuts are better. However Blast Furnace Canada blog did the Math and disputes this claim.Polls places them at 109 The NDP is lead by Jack Layton. They are basically a social democratic and thus would have more in common with the liberals. In fact people think they want to be in a coalition with the Liberals. They are tipped to take 24 seats. Of their marginal seats many of them are against liberals. Bloc Quebecois is solely based in Quebec. They are a basically a separatist party that wishes to set up a separate French Speaking state. However a referendum in 1995 on this issue was lost. They are mainly challenged by the Liberals in their province and thus have been focusing their attacks on them. Their attacks have centered around alleged funding of pro-federalist rallies during the referendum. As this strikes squarely at the reason for the party. They are unlikely to vote with the Liberal party. The polls give them 62 seats. So in my very uninformed opinion I would call the election as a minority Conservative government with the support of the Bloc Quebecois. This would be a possibly more stable government then the last however the Bloc Quebecois are not going to be silent partners and will push there own agenda. Much of western Canada which has the oil gas reserves and also strong Conservative support may not be too happy with pro quebec policies and this might result in the government falling in a year or two. A force to be reckoned with will be the green party. In such a tight political system and with the green party on the rise. Canada might have a green party with Jackie Healy Rae power in the next few years. Canada is looking very much towards Europe for political inspiration. With relations disproving with America interesting times line in store in Canada.

Senator Mary O'Rourke's gaf

This "controversy" must be the most idiotic in Ireland in a long time. The Sunday Tribunes Richard Delevan in his blog goes into a long winded argument about it with nuggets like the ever original what if a Senator from Mississippi said it. It is totally nonsense. While she might be an idiot she is no racist. She did not use the term "works like blacks" in an racist sense.In much the same way someone saying "put your feet up" is not been derogatory to amputees. It is an expression get over it. It is a ridicules state of affairs that this is news. I noticed he hasn't mentioned Pat Rabbittes more deliberate comments at all. Edit. Fiona de Londras gives Richard Delevan a thumbs up. Interesting comment in my comments from Sliabh "I am guessing that "black" as used by Mary O'Rourke meant protestant. My mother is from Leitrim and that is the way the term is always understood there." Which rings a bell with me to I think I heard that explanation before. I wonder if people knew that (protestant) was the meaning would they be as quick to term it racist. And if they would not is that not in its self racist? Edit 2. A sting in the tail makes my point better then I ever could.

Does Ayman al Zawahiri want America in Iraq longer?

If the American war effort needed something to bolster the war effort they couldn't ask for more then Osama bin LadenÂ’s second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri: saying

"Bush, you must admit that you have been defeated in Iraq as you have been defeated in Afghanistan and will be shortly defeated in Palestine if Allah'’s willing."

and

"Oh my Muslim brothers, I told you more than a year ago that the pullout of America'’s troops from Iraq would be a matter of time and Americans are now begging to leave and negotiate with the mujahidin."

Either Ayman al-Zawahiri is an idiot or wants the war to continue or votes republican. Because goading America like that will only serve to keep them in Iraq longer. This article by Daniel McCarthy explains some of my thinking

Unnoticed Racial Scare Mongering

If someone in Irish politics started racial scare mongering. You would think that the media would be hounding that person. You would think the likes of Vincent Browne and the Blogs would be baying for blood. However all is quiet. Why?

During the citizenship referendum the media was very vocal in its criticism of the government. Using the racism word frequently. Now they are largely quiet. However I think I know why. By the second last paragraph of this post many people will be utterly shocked at these quotes and wondering why this has been so quiet in the media and be baying for blood.

In an interview with the Irish Times Michael McDowell mentioned

“The time may be coming when we will have to sit down and examine whether we would have to look at whether a works permit regime ought to be implemented in terms of some of this non-national labour, even for countries in the EU.”

Now I have no problem with a non-EU countries work permit scheme at all as long as the workers get the permits not the employers. However if you ask anyone what is the main principle of the EU it is the free movement of goods and LABOUR. So basically Michael McDowell is saying that a time may come when we will have to renegotiate Ireland membership of the EU. I sincerely doubt that the rest of the EU countries would allow us to even think of this. Yet a man who I guess wants to the deputy leader of this country is considering suggesting changing the EU’s founding rules. Without the free movement of goods services and labour what is the EU.

So Michael McDowell wants to consider restricting legitimate non-national workers entering Ireland.

But that is not the worst thing he said in the interview. Now if you ever wondered what racial scare mongering is. Here is a classic example.

“There are many positive spin-offs from the diversity of labour here now but to say that that should for all time go unregulated I think has been thrown into question by the Irish Ferries dispute. There are 40 million or so Poles after all, so it is an issue we have to have a look at.”

The sentence “There are 40 million or so Poles after all” is a very vindictive line. This is formed purely to pry on the racist beliefs of people that believe we are been infested by Poles.

So why you asked has this been fairly quiet. Any ideas? I’m not entirely sure but if I pointed out that the above quotes were in fact were said by Pat Rabbitte on Tuesday and not Michael McDowell would it perhaps help explain the lack of baying for blood in the media. The only blog I could find mentioning this is ceadaoin and Indymedia have statement from Joe Higgins but no editorials.I seen haven't any condemnation from any columnists in the papers. (haven't read every paper though.)

Or am I becomeing a cynic in my old age and turning into a bit of a McDowell cheerleader.

Edit: I must say sorry to Vincent Browne as he did write about the topic in the Sunday Business Post. All though not as strongly worded I think if it had been McDowell. Still fair play.

Irish Blog Awards Nominations

The Irish Blog awards nominations are now open. (blantant plug warning) So if anyone likes our stuff feel free to nominate us. The catagories are * Best Blogger * Best Blog Post * Most Humorous Post * Best Photo Blog * Best Fictional Piece in a Blog * Best Arts and Culture Blog * Best Political Blog * Best Group Blog * Best Comment/Commenter * Best Personal Blog * Best Use of the Irish Language in a Blog * Best Contribution to the Irish Bloggersphere (Tech wise) And if you do not like our stuff well make sure you nominate a blog that you do like. Use your vote. Thanks

Top 6 Friday Things I would like to see the government do.

I swear I will stop these lists about the past and the future. Soon I’ll have a list about the top 6 cheese cake fillings but until then you are stuck with this. Enjoy :)

I looked at a Vincent Browne article in the Village recently about his view of the future and what needs to be done. So here is my views.

6. The planning laws in this country need to change. The climate that created the planning tribunals has not changed much. Much reform needs to be taken. Planers need to be no longer in fear of high rise buildings. Also these rules where councils can specify who can live where need serious debate. I think it is true to say a government has no right to specify where someone can live under EU law but does someone with money from D4 and no link to the area have the right to deny someone from the area from living there just because the D4 person fancies a scenic holiday home for a few days a year.

5. The government needs to fund or restart the Centre of Public Inquiry. The centre is very important and needs to be in place. The management of the centre has to be carefully selected this time to make sure nobody with possible ulterior motives will head it up. The Atlantic Philanthropies had offered to continue funding if Connolly and Fergus Flood resigned the board refused. The government should campaign to bring this back even if it requires the creation of a new agency called Public Inquiry Centre.

4. Help needs to be given to help long term unemployed people gain employment. The situation where people who take up employment lose their housing benefit and then can no longer afford their rent needs to be changed. This acts as a real deterrent to people. What does the government expect people to do? They are not going to do something that is going to adversely effect them.

3. While the health services is improving a lot more needs to be done. We invest more per head in health then the British yet it is not a patch on the NHS. We have amongst the highest paid consultants in the world. Their wages need to be brought in line with the rest of Europe and their private practices need reduced. They should either be fully private or working for the state. The management structures of the hospitals need to be over hauled. Increases in the health budget no longer the main issue.

2. Ireland needs to become more self-sufficient in energy. We can not be continually dependent on foreign imports as much. We need to invest in renewable sources heavily and be less wasteful. We need to build incinerators and the government has to help people recycle and reduce waste. My local recycling centre was taken away how is that promoting recycling. We also have to reduce emissions.

1. The early education system in the country needs to be radically reformed. The reason that many people from disadvantages areas struggle to get the University has got little to do with the university system. It has to do with the fact that at that stage students already do not want to go to collage. This attitude needs to be altered. It happens at the early stages of schooling. More resources are needed at primary level. Not just in school but more importantly in my opinion at homework clubs. Also a new approach to Irish needs to be taken. We can learn from the Welsh example and introduce Irish speaking (not grammar) at an earlier age.

Double Standards my pet peeve

Now I have already stated my views about the Frank Connelly Affair. Here. The people who disagree with what was done do so mainly on the principle of innocent until proven guilty. Which I can totally respect. But only if it is consistent. However some people are not consistent and that bugs me. Take for example the well produced and maintainedIrish Corruption. Who are against the Connelly affair. I can only suppose they believe in the innocent until proven Guilty argument as they say.

Ah, come on, I hear you say, that’s a bit over the top. The State is not going to target innocent citizens in order to protect itself against possible revelations of corruption. Really? Ask Frank Connolly.

Then they say

"The most corrupt politician in Irish history, Charlie Haughey"

Yet Haughey has never been convicted of anything so why are they not being consistent about the whole innocent until proven guilty thing. Is it because Haughey is Haughey or McDowell is McDowell. I accept that Irish Corruption is solely about Corruption and is wee bit partial to the odd bit of sensationalism. ( "AIB, the most corrupt bank in Ireland" I mean how does one know that for sure. Its like saying Roy Keane the Greatest Irish Player there ever will be.). But double standards are in my eyes one of the worst things in the world whether it is in media or life.

Ariel Sharon

Ariel Sharon has suffered a "significant" stroke. I had recently thought he was becoming a major calming presence in Israel. I did give him third on the list of people of 2005. If he is unable to govern (and I think this is very likely) it may signal a step backwards in the path to peace. It seems that Sharon illness is uniting much of the left and the right Little Green Footballs are offering there prayers While Written for the Revolution Had this to say.

When Sharon quit Likud to form a center left coalition committed to pullout and peace, I was very happy. I actually was. Sharon, a war criminal, who was responsible for all sorts of things while he served in the military, was also the head of the hardlined, right wing nationalist Likud Party. He has been seen as one of the road blocks to the resolution of the Palestinian problem for years now. But then, one morning, he quit Likud. I seriously felt like crying. At last, someone seemed committed to change over there. Even someone like Ariel Sharon. The new party he formed was center left, and included the socialists in Israel. He declared that he was committed to peace there in Israel, and demonstrated the commitment by quitting the Party that opposed it. All the talking and even the troubled withdrawal from Gaza earlier in this year were not enough to convince me of a commitment, but this action, what could be seen almost as political suicide, (except for the fact that most of the people of Israel support peace), was enough to convince me, and finally I saw that perhaps this would really move ahead. Not quite ready to see Sharon as a good person, but at least I was ready to see him as one who supported peace, and I was certainly willing to believe that he indeed had discovered that he may have supported the wrong policies and was at least trying to turn over a new leaf.

The fortunes of his new party may well indeed suffer now. Which is a shame. However maybe people will rally around his memory and vote to keep peace on track. His current replacement Ehud Olmert will probably try to maintain Sharons wishes how ever Binyamin Netanyahu may try to use this to his advantage.

Noam Chomsky

I hear Noam Chomsky tickets are scarce. I have a friend who wants to go. Anyone know how i can get my hands on a ticket please email me at thedossingtimes at gmail.com if anyone has any leads or leave a comment. Thanks . Is anyone one going to blog the event.?

Russian Gas Influence Part 2 – European Union and Us

This is a follow up of Russian Gas Influence Part 1 - Ukraine

I don’t think I have ever learned as much about gas then I have in the last few days. What I have learned has scared me. When ever I look upon those hippies in the Friends of the Earth and people who decided to live in Hobbit type huts I looked upon them with a kind of smugness. But now I am nearly ready to go on the street protesting with them. Not because of any great belief in being friends with polar bears but because I realise how vital self-sufficiency in energy is. We should be investing heavily in off-shore oil and gas, wind farms, wave power, solar rain power, tidal power, biomass, hamster power whatever we need to cut down on imports. Because those who have the energy have the power and Russia seems to have a desire to wield it

Even though Russia is only the 16^th richest country in the world it is a member of the G8. Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the foreign relations committee of the State Duma(Dail/Parliament), Said that "Russia's participation is not a gesture of lordly generosity. It is recognition for the obvious fact that Russia remains a world power," While the Russian Army is not what it was the energy supplies do in fact give it a powerful position on the world stage. The world recession in the 70s can be directly correlated to the Saudis reduction of oil supplies.

Already One quarter of European gas comes from Russia. The gas supplies in Europe are dwindling Norway the Netherlands and Britain are running out and unless something unlikely happens like vast gas fields are found off the Irish coast. Russia will be the prime source of energy in Western Europe. This gives them the type of power Khrushchev would have been proud of. An article in the Financial Times, circa 13 January 1982 about American sanctions on a pipeline through Poland stated “The Reagan Administration has long argued that the pipeline will make West Europe dangerously dependent on the Soviet Union.” It looks like this may indeed yet prove true.

However as gas is piped Russia would have to bring gas through some countries such as the Ukraine Belarus and Poland. This would leave Russia’s interests in jeopardy of being controlled by these countries. As they could decide to siphon gas if Russia cut their gas for not towing the Kremlins line or stop the gas for ransom.

However they have started construction on a project to counter this. Although it is more expensive to build they are building a direct pipeline to Germany and beyond called the North European Gas Pipeline. Due to be completed in 2010. Controlled by Gazprom with a 51% stake(the other lot is controlled jointly by 2 German companies). The new pipeline will be an underwater pipeline along the Baltic sea bed. As it is in international waters it would be free from interference. However if Finland and Estonia rescinded a 1994 treaty (pdf) they could halt it. However neither Finland or Estonia are likely to do that and Russia may try keeping those two countries on side. (For full explanation Brussels Journal.) The newly appointed chairman of the North European Gas Pipeline is former German Chancellor Gerhard Shroeder. Who weeks prior to his leaving office signed the pipeline agreement. This has lead to some Germans being annoyed claiming he was manufacturing his own pension scheme. (Crazy Germans as if a politician would ever dream of using their office to feather there own nest.)

It is expected that by 2020 the EU will import 75% of it natural gas needs. This puts Russia in a very strong position. All it would need to do is threaten turning off the taps and Europe would have to capitulate to what ever demand Russia makes or risk economic destruction. Russia is already trying use it market to effect countries. A recent incident in Norway shows Russia’s thinking. A Russian fishing boat “kidnapped” 2 Norwegian fisheries inspectors as the boat was escaping Norway’s coast guard. Russia doesn’t like Norway enforcing fishing rights in the Spitsbergen zone. In response to this (From Secular Blasphemy)

Russia's food safety authorities claimed to have found extreme content of cadmium and lead in Norwegian fresh farmed salmon, and instituted a total ban on imports. Russia is Norway's largest customer of seafood products. The claims were beyond sane in every way, so obviously designed to send a 'signal', as they say, while leaving no reasonable way to believe there was any actual truth in the claims. Norway's food safety authorities not only found the fish perfectly safe, but found it impossible, no matter how much heavy metals they subjected salmon to in tests (don't tell PETA), to duplicate the absurd values the Russians claimed were present. Also, Singapore, alerted by the row, decided to test Norwegian salmon and found it totally safe.

This and the Ukraine incident seems to me to show Russia is willing to use economic force to impose its will on other nations.

So how will Russian Gas effect Irelands future. As per 2001 estimates Ireland consumes 4.1999 billion cu m and produces 815 million cu m. And as of 2001 we have 9.911 billion cu m proved reserves. So theoretically we could be self sufficient in gas for over 2 years. However we doubt we have the ability to tap the reserves to that extent. This does bring the controversy of the Corrib Gas back into focus. It is in our strategic interest that that gas is taped at some stage in the future (possibly father into the future is even more in our interest). It is possible that Ireland does have large reserves of gas and oil in the Atlantic. With the famous Rockall reported to be rich in oil.

If the Corrib Field does eventually get tapped successfully whether on or off shore it may increase companies coming into Irish waters searching for oil and gas. If they do and find more, this can help stabilise Irelands’ future by giving a secured supply lessening the economic blow. The question then is would some larger nation invade for the supply? If we do not find extra supplies we are in the same boat as the rest of Europe. With Ireland being plunged into a recession similar to the 70s where inflation neared 25% in 1975 (which is almost Iraq levels).

Europe needs to learn from this Ukraine incident and realise that Russia is willing to use its resources for political gain. Now they may be willing to supply our energy needs but this may be just to create the situation where Europe realise solely on Russia. At that point they can then start exerting pressure. We need to develop more sources of energy. We need to find more oil and gas and even dare I say it investigate nuclear energy (Finland is rebuilding it nuclear industry). But also develop renewable sources, conserve more. So grab your stripy woolly jumper, grow your hair and don’t wash. Because the era of the tree hugging hippy may be coming sooner then you might think. That or another cold war.

Poster came from here

Russian Gas Influence Part 1 - Ukraine

Since the early 90s the Soviet Union has gone through immense change. For one it is no more. Two three former countries are in the EU(Latvia Lithuania and Estonia). But some things do not change. It still seems that the Kremlin still want to maintain some control over the former members of the Union. Where during the Cold War it was the Red Army that kept every one in check now it seems Russia is trying to use economic forces to keep everyone in check. According to ZN in a closed session of the Russian Duma (Dail/Parliament) Russia Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Minister) promised to employ “all available means of economic pressure” on the “disobedient” neighbours. (Source Orange Ukraine Blog well worth a read.) How he defines disobedient neighbours is unclear but I doubt he is referring to recent oppression in Uzbekistan.

The old ways in Russia are not quiet gone. With the fall of the Soviet Union it seemed that it was possible that Russia would move to a free market, democratic country. With people like the First Prime Minster Yegor Gaidar calling for economic reforms. However now this is not the case. The media is mainly state controlled and the opposition is in taters. The progress towards a free market started in the 90s is going backwards. The government has pretty much nationalizing the energy industry. The government has a 51% stake in Gasprom the worlds largest gas company and company involved in the latest controversy. Recently Economic adviser Andrei Illarionov resigned stating “When I took the job, we spoke about conducting a liberal economic policy. Now, the state has evolved in quite the opposite direction,” He also has said that Russia has “Saudi Disease”. Which he says is Russia is using it energy supplies to pressure other states or in other words it is “a weapon”.

Russia has seen it influence weaken across the region. With the Baltic states joining the EU they have seen those states possibly lost for ever. They don’t want the Ukraine and Georgia going the same way. Parts of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) have broken away and Russia is seeking that they join Russia. Also the on going bitter conflict in Chechnya shows that Russia does not want to cede anymore territory. It now holds the G8 presidency and with it moves in Iran over the Nuclear production it seems to be trying to excrete greater influence on the world stage. Its gas and oil reserves will form much of its power.

Russia is coming more closed. Recently the Russian-language radio broadcasts of the BBC and Deutsche Welle (DW) were taken of the air. Due to there reporting on the situation in Belarus. Sergei Yastrzhembsky Putin’s guy in charge of relations to the EU claimed that they were using “methods from the Cold War arsenal.” And they could not tolerate “interference in the affairs of a sovereign state”. This would hardly have been the happened if the BBC were reporting about Estonia so it must be seen as Russia trying to keep Belarus already a close ally free of any Orange Revolution type shenanigans.

That might explain why Russia has not hit Belarus with a gas price hike. On Tuesday Belarus and Russia agreed a $46.68 per 1,000 cubic meters price for the gas. While they wish to charge Ukraine $230. The Ukraine economy is in a poor state inflation is running at 13.9% (From The Economist) Certainly Ukraine is not in a situation where it can afford to pay the same price for gas as the rest of the EU can. The Ukraine imports 30% percent of its gas from Russia 45% from Turkmenistan and produces 23% of its needs itself. A deal with Turkmenistan has already been agreed. But the Turkmen gas flows via Russia. If the Ukraine decided to stop the Russian gas flowing to the EU market as punishment for increasing the price of gas. The Russia could also stop the Turkman gas. Victor Yushchenko, has described $80 as a fair price, But he said Gazprom was adjusting prices according to the customer —- $120 for the Baltic states, $110 for ex-Soviet Caucasus states and $47 for pro-Russian Belarus. “A price of $230 is unacceptable not because it is high, but because there are no economic grounds for it,” he said. If that is true then it is clear that this is not simply an issue of Gasprom wanting to get the market rate for its gas. If you go by Mr Yushchenko figures Gasprom are charging countries based on ability to pay with every other country save the Ukraine and Romania (Romanian pays US$280 which is higher the EU. I have no idea why)

So what is Russia hoping to obtain from this price hike. In March Ukraine goes to the polls. The country is basically spilt in 3 between the Pro Russian Mr Yanukovych and the Pro-Western Mr. Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko were part of the Orange Revolution and they are now opposed (Yushchenko sacked Tymoshenko in September) with Tymoshenko claiming a betrayal of democratic ideals.

Yanukovych power base would suffer the most as is based in the heavily industrialized regions. Yet he has not sided with Yushchenko on this one. Either he doesn’t care about his electorate or maybe knows if he is elected Russia will drop the price on gas boasting the economy and cementing his leadership of the country. Sending a message to the people, that only a pro-Russian agenda can work in the Ukraine.

In the last election Yanukovych won 40% of the vote. So it would not take a lot more support for him to top the poll. This gas cut will hit Ukrainian industry hard in an already poor country. With Yushchenko’s year in power been dogged with errors it would probably finally topple him. The Kremlin’s hope may be that the economic degradation brought by the high gas price may result in Yanukovych being returned to power and Ukrainians desire to join the EU and NATO dashed for ever. Resulting in Ukraine returning to the Russian fold. I can’t see this happening .

The passion that the Orange Revolution brought will not be diminished. I used to share a flat with a Ukrainian and the pride he had about participating in the Orange Revolution is not the kind of passion that can be easily quailed. In fact this apparent undue influence on the Ukraine by Russia could in fact bolster anti-Russian sentiment in the country and make any prospect of the Ukraine returning to the Russian fold even more unlikely. While Yushchenko may not get the same support or even a majority as he got the last time. His party and Ms Tymoshenko break away party will be able to find enough common ground to create a coalition even if that common ground is just to keep Yanukovych out of power.

Russian Gas Influence Part 2 – European Union and Us

America Plans to invade Canada.

Long the stuff of legend the America plans for invading Canada. Interesting article at one point the Fenians invaded Canada. Considering they can be directly linked to the Irish Army via the IRB etc. Does that mean the Irish Army fought the Canadians :).

Dossing Times Neutrality Poll

Should Ireland abandon Neutrality and join NATO. Poll is on the right side bar. Vote Now.

The nation is Divided

The results of the Latest poll are On the question of Was McDowell right to do what he did in the Connelly case. 11 people said No 7 people said He was right to out him but it should have been done in Dail not leaked to the Irish Independent. 4 people said Yes So basically It seems 50% say it was right to out Connelly and 50% that it was wrong. The majority how ever do say that McDowell handled it badly and should have been more carefully in how he did it. So is this a sign that a rift in the Irish Blogosphere could happen between pro and anti-McDowell or just a poll. Only time will tell.

Top 6 Friday Irish People of 2005

6. People keep celebrating the likes of J.P. McManus and other tax exiles for what they do for Ireland yet still ridicule a man that has done far more the any of them and pays his taxes.That man is Michael O’Leary. He reckons the delights of Westmeath outweigh the advantages of tax exile. 5. Here at the dosing times we appreciate someone who stands up for his principles. While CK will probably disagree with me I think Michael McDowell deserves a place on his list. He stood up to the IRA and against many other groups. While his café bars thing were brought down by Fianna Fail back benchers. He has stood firm on many issues and personally a politician standing up for his principles and not just for whatever is popular is a welcome change. 4. One journalist said that this guy did more damage to the government in 5 TV shows then the position had done in 7 years and It is true. Eddie Hobbs revitalised Fine Gael. With his accent, telling people what their parents had always told them and his use of figures he mobilised more people into questioning government more then they had in years. 3. Another of the few politicians I have immense respect for is Joe Higgins of the socialist party. While I disagree with much of his policies I admire his determination and conviction. He championing of the Gama Workers cause really should that the little guy still has the ability to get justice in this country. Also his line in the Dail during the Willie O’ Dea gun picture. About whether the Taniste had asked security to take his gun at the door. Priceless. 2. The Republics biggest news story of the year was The Rossport Five. Not only is this amazing because the media picked up a story about people who live in Rossport and not Malahide. But that these men did not back down. They went to prison on a matter of principle. They felt they were defending their friends and families. And they fought a massive corporation to protect them. With recent surveys hinting they may be right after all. People power shines on. 1. They came second in my world list so they are an obvious best in Ireland 2005. To live in an area ruled by the treat of violence and to stand up in an area where standing up is not acceptable is something truly amazing. The McCartney Sisters and Bridgeen Hagans showed true bravery. After the Murder of their brother Robert instead of staying quiet as would be expect they stood up to the terrorists. With a natural talent for PR they stood up for everyone without a voice. They did something that the British Government, Irish Government, SDLP and Kevin Myres could never do. They turned traditional IRA supporters against them and they touch Irish America tainting the image that Sinn Fein have worked so hard to build. This lead to a situation which forced the IRA to give up their weapons something that I don’t think would have happened without them. I cannot say enough about these ladies they are truly great. The story of their struggle for justice is inspiring. The fact that they were forced to leave their homes really makes their story a Shakespearian tragedy a story I hope one day is told so that it can inspire generations to stand up to injustice. They have changed Ireland for decades if not forever.

Russia

I have been watching the state of Russia and Belarus lately. Might write something more substantial soon. However I think this is a very telling development in Russia. A country that has no free press and is looking like it might go back to totalitarism.

An outspoken aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered his resignation in protest against changes in government policy. Economic adviser Andrei Illarionov said Russia was no longer politically free but run by state corporations acting in their own interests.

Risk Equalisation

Many around the the Irish blogs have been critising Mary Harney for here stance on Risk Equalisation. The main arguments about it can be seen here on Wulbeorn Watching. I have say I totally agree with Mary Harney and disagree with Wulbeorn. Buba and VIVAS can not be allowed to take the young healthy clients forcing the old to use the VHI. Old people need more care thus costing the VHI more. Thus increasing the burden on old people. While young people get a free run. If Buba get away win this case and are allowed not to take on any responsibility for care of the elderly. Then what's next City Buses not going to take children as they are more likely to drop sweet wrappers thus creating higher cleaning bills. The arguments made by copernicus on both Wulbeorns and Disillusionedlefty some up my views on the subject better then I can.