Friday, January 20, 2006

Recent Poll

The recent poll out is interesting in a way. The results for the Pd and the greens can be ignored. They only run in a few places so a national poll shows nothing. From Indo.
Fianna Fail is now on 37pc (+3), Fine Gael 24 (-1), Labour 16 (+2), SF 9 (-1), Greens 4 (-1), PDs 3 (-1), and others 8pc, unchanged. That suggests the Government parties have jumped 2pc since the previous corresponding poll in September.
From Sluggerotoole comment by Henry94
Fianna Fail'’s core vote sits now at 37%, which is below the 41.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002. Fine Gael'’s core vote sits now at 18%, which is below the 22.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002. The PDs's core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.75% it achieved in the general election of 2002. The Greens'’s core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.85% it achieved in the general election of 2002. Besides Sinn Fein the only party to make a gain was Labour at 12% up from the 10.77% it achieved in the general election of 2002. It is suggested by commentators that Labour's gain was caused by itÂ’s playing of the anti-immigrant card.
I have to agree, Pat Rabbitee playing the race card is certainly going to increase their vote. His own rating has gone up 4%. Sinn Fein's support is also falling. What I said about a Sunday Business Post Poll back in September.

6 comments:

phdbird said...

It is suggested by commentators that Labour's gain was caused by it's playing of the anti-immigrant card.
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I have to agree, Pat Rabbitee playing the race card is certainly going to increase their vote. His own rating has gone up 4%.
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Surely the PDs should benefit too if this is the case? They take a very strong line on deportation, and have acted on it. I know they only run in a few places but due to their position in government their actions on this matter are very high profile.

Simon said...

Surely the PDs should benefit too if this is the case? They take a very strong line on deportation, and have acted on it.
Have they though. Of about 70,000 aslyum applications about 340 have been rejected. Compare that to most other countries.

The PDs have never said anything about europe. And in fact Ireland is one of 3 countries in the EU that did not impose restrictions on the assension states.

Considering PD's were in the government at the time. They took part in that decision if not made. it. So PD policy is in fact 100% opposite to pat rabbite's work permits for assension states policy.

Simon said...

Of about 70,000 aslyum applications about 340 have been rejected

Sorry about that stat I got that from another blog comment. So can't really trust that. Anyway the figures for 2005 are 309 deported.
But that is up to october.

Now the other figures are bit longer winded as their various factors invoulved but basically.
245 were grant leave to remain for reasons other then Irish born childern. with childern 14,463 given leave to remain.

for aslum seakers 358 granted on first go. 434 on appeal.

There is also a lot of people denind but not deported. So I guess in a few years time they will fall into the 14,463 figure because I think that comes from people been in Ireland for years.

anyway jan-oct 2005 15500 granted and 309 deported. So that sadly means there are thousands in limbo between legal and deported. And I don't know what will happen to them however looking at the stats they are unlikly to be deported.

in the last 5 years of 11210 deportation orders signed. 2571 have been acted on. Or about 23%.

The stats are here (about page 11)
http://debates.oireachtas.ie/Xml/29/DAL20051020A.PDF

Sorry for the wrong stat i wouldn't trust commenters on other blogs again

Simon said...

One more thing I just found out.
according to http://www.politics.ie/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9853
The party supporters most against work permits are the PDs. So weaker laws then Pat Rabbittee would bring in is what would benefit the PDs amoust there supporters.

Sorry for continued replys to this Im researching this as I go along.

phdbird said...

I'm really talking about the high profile cases like the school in Athlone where Gardai burst into carrying out a deportation on a schoolchild. This was headline news on RTE. RTE also covered particular deportations in detail - long term partners being broken up etc. This kind of coverage has more impact on the general public than stats. Also highly publicised is the fall in asylum applications after the tightening of the system. People do attribute this to our minister for Justice.

Simon said...

Well all deportation cases are going to be sad. I mean look at many Irish in America who can't come home. It is never plesant. But you have to have an strong immergrant policy and that involves deportation. But to say the PDs are acting on it is wrong. 23% is a fail grade.

As you said about the stories People do attribute this to our minister for Justice. Which makes you wonder about the news when looking at the figures the news should be attributing the fact that the justice minister is quiet lax in deportation.

The facts are no polish worker has been deported.(well maybe 1 or 2 for crimes but thats different)
under the PD's under Labour some would be.

If you really think that Immergrants should have rights don't vote labour they will get tougher. Every other party disagrees with them so vote greens sinn fein pds Fine Gael or Fianna Fail etc.