Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Dossing Times Election Poll Results

The votes of the dosing times poll are in and the results are as follows. 39 votes cast. Pds 10 votes Fine Gael 6 Labour 6 Greens 5 Fianna Fail 4 Sinn Fein 4 Independent 2 Will not vote 2 Socialist party 0 Now as can be seen the votes are not very accurate to the main public opinion. It is highly unlikely that the Pds will the largest party in the Dail and Fianna Fail smaller then the greens, but what does it say about Dossing Times readers. Most of the Dossing Times readers judging by the comments left are either friends or bloggers. The majority however are bloggers. So what does that say about the Irish Blogger community? One thing it shows is that the opinion amongst bloggers seems to be mixed. In Irish political Blogland blogs are mainly split in 3 ways left wing, right wing and nationalist. The voter numbers for sinn fein would therefore be thought to be higher. With many pro-sinn fein blogs such was gaskinbalrog. it seems strange that sinn feins poll count was so low. That is possibly due to them not knowing about the poll. Or that that sinn fein support is below what they might expect. Fianna Fail level of support would seem to suggest that blogland does not have the same level of support for the party as the polls seem to suggest. Fianna Fail is the party that is voted for by the poorest sections of society while Labour and the Greens (in that order) are voted for by the most affluent members. The Pds probably also have an affluent base. As do Fine Gael. While Sinn Fein gets much of its support from working class areas. This might show that the blogsphere is made up largely by the affluent members of society. Considering that blogging requires Internet access this is probably not a extravagant claim. However Fianna Fail performance might represent a dissatisfaction with their performance in government a dissatisfaction not shared with the Pds. As culabula said in the comments section
I expect the result to be more polarized between Left/Right because bloggers are people who think about their political choices. In the real elections most people take the middle option (FF, FG stand up).
Thus this would explain the high votes for the Pds Labour and the Greens. These parties are either left wing or right wing. With perceived set political view points. Where as Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are very much central in view point. While the Pds are on top with 10. The combined Labour Green vote is 11. This suggest that Labour and the green party slit the left wing vote while the Pds have no natural opponent on the right. (All this is presuming that Tom Parlon did not find this website) What this has to do with the outcome of the next election is unclear. It may have very little to do with it. 39 votes in an election split across many constitutes is not going to make or break a government, However if blogs come as important in Ireland as in America. With tens of thousands reading blogs everyday. Then the few top Irish bloggers may come as influential as many of Irelands top journalists. If bloggers start really pushing parties. Then it is possible that the preference of wing politics in the blogsphere might lead to a rise in the fortunes of the left, right and nationalist parities and a fall for the central parties. However I think this unlikely to happen. I don't think blogs will evolve the same way as in America. The explosion of blogs power in America is due to George W Bush. We don't have the same divide in Irish politics. Few on both sides of the divide would see a government of the Pds and Labour while not their first choice as totally wrong. The Greens agreeing with the Pds on an issue is not an earth shattering event unlike the Democrats and Republicans in America agreeing. The rise of American blogs influence is due to the divide that is not in Ireland. The only divide in Ireland is Sinn Fein and Anti-Sinn Fein. And Sinn fein is far from having enough power to really trouble anyone yet. But if they do rise then the Irish Blogland may have a divide that will drive the blogsphere. In Ireland all politics in local. While people might dislike Fianna Fail they still will vote Fianna Fail as their local Fianna Fail TD is a good man/woman. They don't see the connection between local TD's and the Dail. If Greens Labour and the Pds want to make inroads into Fianna Fail and Fine Gael they have to try make people see the bigger picture. Sinn Fein realise that is the situation. They work hard on the ground and that is why they are on the rise. Not due to people agreeing with them but because the local Sinn Fein person is a good for the county. Sorry for the delay in publishing the results by the way.


Chris Gaskin said...

My site is one of very few who are pro-Sinn Féin. I didn't even know about the poll untill 2 minutes ago when I discovered this site.

Simon said...

ya i thought sinn fein might get higher. anyway welcome to the site.